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Thursday, August 03, 2006

Zarqwari and Progress

When terrorist and insurgency leader Abu al Zarqwari was killed it was supposed to be another "turning point" for Iraq. While a significant coup it has had no effect on conditions in Iraq as judged by casualties. 45 American soldiers died in July and 43 died in June after he was killed. One hundred civilians are dying every day in Baghdad due to sectarian civil war. The bottom line is that killing Zarqwari did nothing to improve conditions or aid in winning the war.

The question which remains unanswered is how do we win this war? How do you define victory in this conflict? Bush defines it as "completing the mission." Of course this means you must define the "mission." So what is that definition? It keeps changing as conditions continue deteriorating. Originally defined as regime change only it spiraled into an amorphous generalization referred to as "spreading democracy" in the region.

That mission has been an absolute failure as warlords and religious leaders now control all of Iraq outside the Green Zone. Shia theologians controlled by mullahs in Iran have more control in Iran than we do.

I don't see any way we can complete this stated mission. Sunnis and Shias are battling every day on the streets of Baghdad and elsewhere throught Iraq. The violence is not only unabated but progressively increasing. The trends have been clear for several years as attacks against occupation forces increase, casualties increase, and more control is accumulated by radical leaders.