Keystone Poll Results: Rendell & Casey Still Lead

The new Keystone Poll is out and Ed Rendell and Bob Casey still lead their GOP challengers. In the Guv race Fast Eddie is ahead by 52%-34% with 14% undecided. The Senate race shows the Democrat leading by a smaller margin 45%-38%. Carl Romanelli, if he makes it onto the ballot, was getting 5%. 12% are undecided and should expect quite a bit of attention the next seven weeks.

Rendell's lead is significant. He's over the magic 50% + 1 needed to win. Even if all the undecideds go for Swann (which is highly unlikely) he still wins. Undecideds generally fall to the incumbent. Voters are usually reluctant these days to evict someone in office unless the challenger provides compelling reasons to do so. Swann obviously hasn't. Many voters are worried the man has no idea what he's talking about and fear his being in the Governor's mansion. He hasn't illustrated any grasp of the issues as yet and that has people scared.

The Senate race is another story. Though polls have shown Casey ahead all along his lead keeps shrinking and he isn't over the 50% number. The 5% going to Romanelli could be the tie breaker. This is why it was so foolish to give the man all the tons of publicity they did over the ballot issue. No one would even have known about the guy otherwise. The Casey campaign continues making serious missteps. Can they play a four corners defense and run out the clock? Probably not against a good, seasoned campaign staff at Sanitorium headquarters.

This race may play out on the role of the 527 organizations. The Vote Vet ad below is very powerful and could persuade a lot of voters. Many different groups are targeting this race and will be heard from between now and November 7th. My suspicion is they could hurt Santorum quite seriously, bringing up all his very vulnerable attributes and troubling votes. Can his GOTV effort counter this? We'll know on November 8th.