Inquirer Examines Senate Race

The Philadelphia Inquirer has a very good article today about the Casey/Santorum race. Written by Carrie Budoff who has been covering the race from the beginning, it's a good in depth piece. By the way she quotes me:

"He is going up against a 12-year incumbent with a solid base of support," said John Morgan, a Berks County Democratic committeeman who briefly worked for one of Casey's primary opponents. "I am afraid Casey will lose it. This is an election he should win."

Before everyone begins jumping all over me allow me explain why I believe that. Santorum's support among conservatives is strong. He has a core segment of the voting public who are "true believers." Compare that to 65% of Casey supporters who say they're only supporting him because he isn't Santorum. So Santorum has a strong base of support and he also is a strong debater (as we saw this morning) who will close much of the gap in the polls unless Casey is magically transformed overnight). Santorum also has a strong advantage on election day get out the vote efforts.

My prediction is this race will get closer and closer between now and November 7th. The debates and Casey's abysmal performance today almostguarantee it, then it will come down to who gets there their voters to the polls. The GOP has a well oiled machine developed and ready for GOTV (get out the vote). We don't. In 2004 we did a very good job of it and still lost ground to the Republicans in many areas. Casey has no field operation, no voter contact effort, and no get out the vote effort. As Carrie writes:

Turnout. Santorum and Casey will each pour millions in advertising on TV and radio. So will the state and national political parties and interest groups.

But close races are typically decided by the less noticeable field operations. Santorum is modeling his ground operation after his 2000 race and Bush's 2004 Pennsylvania campaign - a get-out-the-vote effort that designates volunteers down to the precinct level. Casey is relying on a network of Democratic groups, unions, Gov. Rendell and the state party.

If Casey is relying on the unions he's toast. The unions aren't what they once were. I don't see any political savvy in them and they simply don't have the numbers of people to put on the streets any longer. A successful field operation has to be well organized and coordinated.

Another nugget from her excellent coverage and analysis:

He (Santorum) can hold an audience's attention, and comes off well on TV. He can discuss policy in such detail that he can make Casey's rhetoric appear lightweight.

We certainly saw that this morning. I'm afraid Bob Casey is setting himself up to lose. He's running not to lose instead of running to win.