PA-06 Why Is This Race Even Close?

The Jewish Exponent has an article examining the race for the 6th CD between Jim Gerlach and Lois Murphy. This is a hard fought, evenly contested race so far. A poll last week put Murphy ahead by 5 points. The undecideds and margin of error (assuming correct numbers) still make this a toss up.

I'm astonished Lois Murphy hasn't run way ahead of Gerlach by now. With a large staff, more money and a good candidate Gerlach's significant problems should have deep sixed him by now. They haven't. I know why.

Lois has yet to define herself and her message outside the fact "she isn't Jim Gerlach." No one I know is excited about her campaign and many have been turned off by her rude staff (not all). The primary reason for the lukewarm support has been her failure to take clear, strong stands on the issues most important this year: the war and universal health care. She speaks about middle class tax cuts when voters want to hear her say this failed war needs to end. She talks about "affordable" health care which is the same droning politicians have been spouting for years and doesn't mean a thing.

The negativity in this race was defined by Gerlach two years ago with the infamous Taliban commercial. Since then the teams have traded barbs, insults, and negative attacks. The result is little if any positive message from either camp. A lot of Gerlach's former supporters are so ticked off at his mailings he's lost them. Lois' 2004 supporters have abandoned her because of the war. I think much of the support both had in 2004 has seriously waned. Who will win? This horse race will go to whomever gets the voters to like him/her.