Senate Race: Controlling the Message, Or Not

Here's a quick quiz. When you think of Rick Santorum's Senate campaign what image first pops into your head? How about Bob Casey? If you were entering the voting booth this morning what is the one central image you have of each candidate?

Political campaigns are designed around one central, overarching theme: the thought they want you to have of their candidate and the thought they want you to have of their opponent. This is called the "message." It's the major theme of their campaign. I asked lots and lots of people what John Kerry's campaign message was for about a year after the 2004 election. No one knew (it was "A Stronger America). One reason he failed was he didn't get his message out. George Bush did. Bush also got his message about Kerry out. He was able to define his opponent in the voters' minds.

One of the worst things you can do in a political race is allow your opponent to define who you are to the voters. The Swift Boaters defined John Kerry and he never recovered. Santorum and Casey are both trying to define each other and that part of their strategies seem to be working according to this article. Santorum's portrayal of Casey as an "empty suit" has equal credence to the opposite portrayal of Santorum as Bush's lapdog.

I've been asking people what Casey's message is. I've been trying to determine if he's had any success in defining one. I didn't have a clue what it was at all until Saturday when I saw it on his new yard signs (which, by the way are awful). It's something called "A New Direction." Everyone I've asked has replied with the same line: I'm not Rick Santorum." That's the message voters have so far of Casey. Santorum's message about himself? Who knows, that one's a mystery. Maybe it's "I'm not a canine casanova."

What this newspaper article shows is both Senate candidates seem more focused on defining each other at this point than themselves. They run the risk of their opponent's message sticking in voters' monds come November 7th. What killed Kerry was his lack of response to the Swift Boater's message. Ignore your opponent's message about yourself at your own peril.

Update: A new Keystone Poll is out and the pundits are reacting to this:

In the Senate race, 20 percent of the respondents said they had an unfavorable opinion of Casey, a seven-point increase.

Terry Madonna agrees with me:

"Casey has to define himself before Santorum defines him completely."